Improving the Efficiency of Local Government Decision-Making through Econometric Modeling and Forecasting: The Case of Namangan Region
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51699/cajitmf.v7i2.1231Keywords:
Local government, decision-making, econometric model, Student’s t-test, Fisher’s F-test, least squares method, coefficient of determination (R²), forecastingAbstract
This study aims to develop econometric models and estimate their parameters to improve the efficiency of decision-making in local government authorities, using the example of the Namangan region. During the research process, socio-economic indicators for the period 2018–2025 were analyzed, including the number of decisions adopted, poverty rate, unemployment rate, number of jobs created, and the level of access to drinking water and wastewater services. In constructing the models, simple and multiple regression analyses, as well as polynomial functions, were applied. The parameters were estimated using the least squares method, and the models were evaluated using Student’s t-test, Fisher’s F-test, and the coefficient of determination (R²) [1,2]. The results of the study show that the efficiency of local governance is closely related to poverty, unemployment, employment, and infrastructure indicators [3]. Based on the developed models, forecast values for 2026–2030 were calculated. This approach contributes to evidence-based decision-making in local government, optimal resource allocation, and the promotion of regional socio-economic development.
References
O. J. Murodov, "Improving financial mechanisms in the processes of establishment and liquidation of cotton ginning enterprises," Economics and Innovative Technologies, vol. 4(00078), pp. 101–108, 2025.
O. J. Murodov, Financial mechanisms for improving liquidity and risk management in cotton ginning enterprises, 13 p., 2026.
O. J. Murodov, Analysis of financial risk management mechanisms in cotton ginning joint-stock companies, 3 p., 2026.
O. J. Murodov, Financial mechanism for increasing the profitability of fixed production assets and working capital in cotton ginning enterprises, 3 p., 2026.
A. V. Vahobov and A. T. Ibrohimov, Financial Analysis, Tashkent, Uzbekistan: Iqtisodiyot, 2019, 320 p.
Sh. Elmirzayev, Corporate Finance, Tashkent, Uzbekistan: Fan va texnologiya, 2020, 280 p.
F. T. Yuldashev, Mechanisms for Ensuring Financial Stability in Enterprises, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, 2023, 156 p.
R. R. Kuziev, Financial Mechanisms and Economic Systems, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, 2025, 248 p.
S. A. Ross, R. W. Westerfield, and B. D. Jordan, Fundamentals of Corporate Finance, 13th ed., McGraw-Hill Education, 2022.
E. F. Brigham and P. R. Daves, Intermediate Financial Management, 13th ed., Cengage Learning, 2021.
O. Yermolaev, Matematicheskaya statistika dlya psikhologov, 2011.
L. Zaks, Statisticheskoe otsenivanie, Moscow, Russia: Statistika, 1976, 595 p.
D. A. Novikov, Statisticheskie metody v pedagogicheskikh issledovaniyakh (tipovye sluchai), Moscow, Russia: MZ-Press, 2004, 67 p.
Student, "The probable error of a mean," Biometrika, pp. 1–25, 1908.
T. N. Unguryanu and A. M. Grzhibovskiy, "Kratkie rekomendatsii po opisaniyu, statisticheskomu analizui i predstavleniyu dannykh v nauchnykh publikatsiyakh," Ekologiya cheloveka, vol. 5, pp. 55–60, 2011.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Central Asian Journal of Innovations on Tourism Management and Finance
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
In submitting the manuscript to the Central Asian Journal of Innovations on Tourism Management and Finance, the authors certify that:
- They are authorized by their co-authors to enter into these arrangements.
- The work described has not been formally published before, except in the form of an abstract or as part of a published lecture, review, thesis, or overlay journal.
- That it is not under consideration for publication elsewhere,
- The publication has been approved by the author(s) and by responsible authorities – tacitly or explicitly – of the institutes where the work has been carried out.
- They secure the right to reproduce any material that has already been published or copyrighted elsewhere.
- They agree to the following license and copyright agreement.
License and Copyright Agreement
Authors who publish with Central Asian Journal of Innovations on Tourism Management and Finance agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the Central Asian Journal of Innovations on Tourism Management and Finance right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0) that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors can enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the Central Asian Journal of Innovations on Tourism Management and Finance published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or edit it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) before and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.
