Econometric Modeling and Forecasting of Development Indicators of Tourism Enterprises in Uzbekistan
Abstract
This study aims to develop a comprehensive multivariate econometric model for analyzing and forecasting tourism revenue in Uzbekistan. Given the sector’s growing role in the national economy, an evidence-based understanding of key drivers such as tourism value-added, inbound tourist arrivals, investment volume, and the number of tourism-related enterprises is essential. Annual data from 2014 to 2024 were used to construct a log-linear regression model in EViews 12. The model addresses scale heterogeneity among explanatory variables and ensures statistical robustness. The selected predictors include tourism gross value added, number of inbound tourists, investment volume, and active tourism enterprises. The model demonstrates strong explanatory power with an R² of 0.9554 and a Durbin-Watson statistic close to 2, indicating minimal autocorrelation. Forecasts for 2025–2029 suggest steady tourism revenue growth, driven by synchronized increases in investment and entrepreneurial activity within the sector. The findings provide a reliable basis for medium-term tourism policy design and resource allocation. The proposed modeling framework also offers a replicable approach for other emerging economies aiming to strengthen tourism-led economic development and enrich empirical literature on tourism economics.
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