Analysis of Interacting Factors in Medium-Term Forecasting and Planning of Government Budget Revenues

Authors

  • Pardaev Umidjon Uralovich Professor, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Academy of Public Policy and Administration under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Doctor of Economic Sciences (DSc)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51699/cajitmf.v7i1.1100

Keywords:

Medium-Term Fiscal Framework, Revenue Forecasting, Tax Potential, Econometric Modelling, Forecast Error, Scenario Analysis, Fiscal Transparency, Uzbekistan

Abstract

This dissertation develops and substantiates an improved methodological framework for medium-term forecasting and planning of state budget revenues. The study combines institutional analysis with econometric and scenario-based approaches to reduce forecast uncertainty, improve fiscal sustainability, and strengthen evidence-based budgeting. Using official macroeconomic, tax-base, and regional indicators, the research evaluates key drivers of revenue dynamics and proposes practical mechanisms for integrating data systems into forecasting workflows. The findings support policy recommendations to enhance forecast accuracy, transparency, and performance-oriented budgeting in Uzbekistan.

References

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Published

2025-12-17

How to Cite

Uralovich, P. U. . (2025). Analysis of Interacting Factors in Medium-Term Forecasting and Planning of Government Budget Revenues. Central Asian Journal of Innovations on Tourism Management and Finance, 7(1), 280–288. https://doi.org/10.51699/cajitmf.v7i1.1100

Issue

Vol. 7 No. 1 (2026): January

Section

Articles

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