Forecasting the Prospects for Tourism Development Under the Influence of Socio-Economic Indicators of Sustainable Development in Regions and Factors Shaping Overtourism (On the Example of Samarkand)

Abstract

Samarkand, Uzbekistan's historic Silk Road city, is experiencing an unprecedented tourism boom. Inbound arrivals to Uzbekistan reached 7.96 million in 2024, and Samarkand alone draws approximately 4 million visitors annually. This rapid growth poses overtourism risks including overcrowding at heritage sites, strain on infrastructure and the natural environment, and growing community discontent. The present study examines Samarkand's socio-economic context using official statistics and peer-reviewed sources, identifies the principal drivers of overtourism, and develops three quantitative scenarios for 5- and 10-year planning horizons: a Baseline scenario (current trends continue), a Sustainable scenario (moderate growth combined with active management), and a High-Overtourism scenario (aggressive growth without regulatory intervention). Projections cover visitor numbers, tourism revenue, employment, hotel capacity, site-crowding indices, and environmental indicators. Based on the analysis, prioritized policy interventions are recommended, including carrying-capacity limits, eco-taxation, infrastructure investment, tourism zoning, community engagement, and monitoring frameworks. The findings highlight the urgent need for evidence-based, proactive governance if Samarkand is to preserve its UNESCO World Heritage status while benefiting economically from tourism growth.